betFairValue uses historical data and statistical analysis to measure the strength of football teams. These strength numbers are fed to a range of artificial intelligence algorithms (Multi-layer perceptron neural network and Extreme Gradient Boosting) which generates estimates of the result outcome probabilities. Extensive back testing has demonstrated the models probability numbers identify profitable trades on a consistent basis.

Analysis of upcoming fixtures for the major football leagues can be seen on the League dropdown. The analysis presents a value number for each outcome and highlights where a valueBet is available. These valuebets are collected on the Value Bets page.

How betFairValue works

betFairValue Explainer

Manchester United started the 2024-24 English Premier League season at home to Fulham. The extract presented was captured from this site a few days before the match. betFairValue's models estimate 49% home win, 31% draw and 20% away win probabilities. Betfair Exchange had odds available of 1.58 home, 4.80 draw and 6.20 away win. The Value numbers compare the Probs to market Odds. A number greater than 1 indicates the better than fair value odds while less than 1 incates odds are less than fair value.

The Value numbers indicate that the draw and away win results have better than fair value odds available. The higher the value number the more attractive the bet. The Bet Decision field summarises the calculations and recommends backing the Draw result though the away win or laying the home could also be considered.

The "Odds refreshed at" time shows when the odds were taken from the Betfair Exchange. The Betfair icon provides a link to the Betfair Exchange for the selected match - Manchester United vs Fulham in this case. The flag image is a link to the league page on this site for the match on view - the English Premier in this case.